Fantasy related but good info.....
Held Hostage
Face it, you've been held hostage, and there's no Stockholm syndrome to cure the ills created by all of the Melodrama.
And every story that you have read that said, unequivocally, that Carmelo Anthony would be traded to the New Jersey Nets had an agenda. Sometimes the agendas were reported by media 'arms,' armed and ready to do the business of their masters. Sometimes the agendas were fed out of a clear and resolute duty to report the news.
But none of those so-called reports were written without a purpose.
The purpose, of course, was to land Carmelo Anthony in New York with the extension that he sought, which has become a more complicated task for Anthony as he has realized that he needs the Knicks more than the Knicks need him. In step, the Knicks have slow-played their hand, refusing to up the ante based on any reports that he would imminently sign, while Denver desperately (and over-aggressively) tried to arrange a deal with New Jersey in hopes the whispers in their ears were true.
Meanwhile, Anthony's handlers and agents may not share the same self-interested purpose of their client, but they were going to at least try to get New York to budge, and if Donnie Walsh wouldn't blink then they would try their best to deliver their client the option of a shiny new arena, a deep-pocketed owner, and a chance to play in his hometown – all while gaining access and control of the 'new' New Jersey empire for a tidy 10% commission.
The only problem with that? Melo
never wanted to play for the Nets, and that chance ended yesterday when Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov held an unprecedented press conference to end the Nets' pursuit of Anthony. Call it dumping your girlfriend before she can do it first, but Prokhorov knew Melo wasn't on board the minute he heard his frustrated remarks bemoaning their apparent meeting. The last thing he was going to do was fly across the country to meet with a disinterested 26-year old.
So why is Melo frustrated? Isn't it his agents that are doing all the wheeling and dealing? Can't he tell them to stop? He can, and that frustration you see is what happens when the PR machine gets too close to the fire. Use the Nets to strong-arm the Knicks into giving him an extension? Sure, but whatever you do, don't get me traded there, please.
Of course, the collateral damage in all of this has been the paralysis of at least three franchises, the holding up of almost all NBA trade traffic, and the tarnishing of reputations all around.
And while he can pretend that his teammates haven't been affected, he only needs to look a few lockers down to see Denver hometown hero Chauncey Billups, whose family has the boxes packed and is waiting to hear where the trade winds will send them. The same uncertainty holds (or held) true for Richard Hamilton, Troy Murphy, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Anthony Randolph, Devin Harris, Al Harrington, and a who's who of NBA journeyman.
Anthony has tried (and failed) to appear above the fray, but his calculated decision to use his leverage indirectly through his handlers and the media rather than simply saying, 'I'll sign here, and not here' has backfired. He's now LeBron Light, with the only difference being that he hasn't called ESPN or Jim Gray to film the whole thing.
Instead, his handlers have instructed him to say
'Did I do that?,'" and once again, another NBA superstar has asked us to believe that he has somehow morphed into Urkel.
The problem for all of the actors in this Melodrama isn't their tactics – it's that their tactics don't work anymore in the Twitter age. In the old days, media plants and public statements took weeks to disseminate and sway stakeholders' opinions, and by then the line between fact and fiction was sufficiently blurred. In the past, a report from a reputable source may have been enough to scare a team like New York into making a move. After all, they read the same newspapers as we do. But surely the brass in New York knew this was a bluff, and like LeBron James' camp planting the 'Erik Spoelstra can't coach' story in broad daylight, all of these media machinations have become too easy to dissect when there's a digital trail to follow.
And you may then wonder why all of these parties go through the hassle and take on all that collateral damage if it's ultimately fruitless. The answer is that the Twitter age is so new that LeBron, Melo, Creative Artists Agency, World Wide Wes, the reporters that cover it, you, us, and everybody in between, we're like little kids figuring it all out. They needed an edge in negotiations and they went for it, but the fallout is all new territory for these guys.
The result is that we will all go through the exercise of following the reports and debunking the reports – and the damage will continue to mount until he's traded. The Nuggets want to get the best deal possible, Melo wants to make as much money as he can and put himself in the best possible situation, and New York wants to pay as little as possible. And to add to the layers of confusion, Melo wants the Knicks to give up as little as possible because he has to go win there.
It's just business 101, but the difference is that we get a blow-by-blow account that gives us a headache. And while many owners are going to complain of the headache, if you're serious about winning you may want to read the tea leaves – after all, Gilbert Arenas was a pretty good fantasy asset in November. It's not all bad though. Some of us signed up for a little light fun, but many of us signed on to feel the thrill of being a real GM.
With Twitter, things move pretty fast, like they would for a real GM – and away we go…..
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Click here for the value changes brought about by yesterday's news and Wednesday's highlights….
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[SIZE=+1]Melo Stock Report[/SIZE]
Overall Change: The Nets are out of the picture. Some folks have floated the possibility that Mikhail Prokhorov's statements were a negotiating ploy, but nobody thinks that is the case. In fact, most are adamant that it is NOT the case, so you can rule it out.
The Knicks remain the favorites for his services, and there will be a number of teams that will be interested in 'renting' him for the rest of the season. Houston has already been identified as a candidate and Dallas has been brought up enough times to be considered a part of the process. Melo's agents literally stopped what they were doing after the press conference and called Chicago to try to make them an interested party, but Chicago isn't exactly breaking down doors to get in this thing.
www.miamiheat.ws
Where does that leave us?
I've compiled a list of the parties that can be impacted by the current trade winds, and again, owners should
not go buying or selling guys like their pants are on fire. Just keep these things in mind, and keep up with events on Rotoworld's NBA Player News page and take part in our live chats to stay ahead of the curve.
New York: As the current favorites to obtain Melo's services, owners of Raymond Felton and Amare Stoudemire are on notice, with Felton's production being at greater risk between the two. Simply put, Melo's touches and rebounds have to come from somewhere. Again,
do not fire sale these guys or even sell-low, just be a step-ahead of the game and consider your options.
Guys like Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and Landry Fields who have been mentioned in a possible Melo trade, whether they're in Denver or New York, will face an uphill battle. All of them are wings, and could land in Denver next to Arron Afflalo, J.R. Smith, and Gary Forbes, and if they stay in New York they could be playing next to Melo. Unless the dynamic of a potential deal changes, their opportunities seem destined to decrease.
The only other Knick worth discussion is Anthony Randolph, who has been in the rumor mill for a while now, and just to clear it up right off the bat I'm not running to go pick him up. Donnie Walsh is confident he can get a first round pick for him to use in the Melo trade, and Indiana, Minnesota, and Portland have all been floated as destinations. One has to think that Portland's interest just went up after Camby went down, which would also theoretically help his value there. Randolph could be worth stashing in deeper formats (read: deep), but keep in mind that Taco from
The League might learn a new offense faster than Randolph would.
Denver: Perhaps the biggest question on owners' minds is, 'does Ty Lawson deserve to be stashed?' I think so, but if you're in a league in which games played is a factor, or are in desperate need for a productive player – then it's okay to let him go. Just keep all of this in mind: Denver is rumored to be interested in buying out Chauncey Billups' contract for
next season at their $3.7 million option, rather than the $14.2 million they would owe him if they kept him. With that reality staring them down, they may want to season their future PG even if Billups is around, especially if the Nuggets fall out of contention. And yes, they can buy Billups out and bring him back, too, but that will be contingent upon whether or not the Nuggets are contending or rebuilding.
So when you add up the chance that Billups is moved, plus the chance that the keys are given to Lawson as the year goes on, and factor in all of the overtures being made by the people in Denver that they are ready for the Lawson-project to begin – yes, he still makes sense to stash away until the Melodrama comes and goes. He's just not the awesome stash that he was 24 hours ago.
As for Billups, his value has been mostly the same throughout this whole mess. If anything, it may have improved in New Jersey where Ty Lawson's equivalent was going to be Jordan Farmar. Now, the chance that he gets moved to a team with a less desirable situation comes into play. This chance doesn't move the needle much with him right now since his name isn't attached to a trade, but how long that holds true is anybody's guess.
Al Harrington is an interesting case simply for the fact that Denver is treating him like a one-night stand, and isn't about to make him an omelet. I don't know what Mike D'Antoni has to say about it, but Denver could easily tell New York to take their Harrington and shove it right up into their rotation at backup PF. Harrington has been mostly radioactive lately with his sub-par play and the 'just got dumped' syndrome, but hanging onto him with the possibility he lands in New York or comes out of the Melodrama ahead makes some sense right now.
The rest of the Denver cast should be handled like normal, and if names start popping up owners can deal with it then.
New Jersey: Devin Harris' value returns to normal without the uncertainty of a bad landing spot, Kris Humphries loses the chance to have the PF job to himself, Derrick Favors is still the raw and somewhat underperforming talent he's been the whole time, Brook Lopez still rebounds like Brooke Shields, Sasha Vujacic is still amazingly relevant, Travis Outlaw is still a mess, and Avery Johnson is still there to make everything unbearable for the most part.
Troy Murphy finally requested a trade out of New Jersey through his agent and the Nets are going to grant it from what it looks like. Detroit is not in the picture barring a new development, and his expiring contract is actually a pretty good trade chip. Stashing him may make some sense, but he has a ton of red flags including his conditioning and the chance he lands somewhere undesirable. I haven't even checked into his availability in 12-team leagues for what it's worth.
Detroit: It's back to the drawing board for them, and all they have to show for their work is a fractured team and one unhappy Rip. They may put him back in the rotation or they may not, and he may just pop up with some sort of minor ailment to stick it to Detroit. Who knows. The bottom line is that he was barely worth stashing when it was "imminent" that he was going to New Jersey, and he's waiver wire fodder now.
Charlie Villanueva, Greg Monroe, and 'power forward' Austin Daye benefit from news that Troy Murphy won't be arriving, but really their value wasn't threatened by news of his arrival too much. The footnote gets removed, that is all.
Other teams: There's really nothing you can plan for. If Melo lands in Dallas his value could take a turn for the worse. He would survive in Houston and elsewhere, and to figure it out you'll have to tune into
Where the Melo Turns.
Click here for Wednesday's highlights….
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[SIZE=+1]Wednesday's Highlights[/SIZE]
The Poster Child's streak ends
Blake Griffin a.k.a. the Poster Child had his double-double streak end at 27 games, and also nearly did the splits and may have some trouble with his groin as a result, but did stay in the game and finish with "just" 29 points, eight rebounds, and six assists on 10-of-21 shooting. Kevin Love's double-double streak did stay intact at 29 straight games, despite the fact that he did not have a rebound at halftime. He bounced back with his 20th double-double this year in just a single half of basketball play, and finished with 26 points and 11 rebounds. This just in, they're good.
Baron Davis is a team player
I'll scratch that off the list of things I swore I'd never say this season, but it's true. The emergence of new leaders Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon has effectively given Baron no choice but to play the part of willing veteran. The result? On Wednesday it was 20 points, four rebounds, four assists, three steals, three blocks, and three 3-pointers. Always mercurial, Davis has gone from malcontent to omnipotent in just over two weeks. Last week I placed a sell-high/hold recommendation on him, and while I wouldn't blame you for cashing in now, the needle has moved to 'hold.' The fact that Eric Gordon hurt his finger last night doesn't hurt, either. Which leads me to…..
Eric Gordon hurt his finger
He tore the tendon from the ring finger on his shooting hand during the first half of last night's game, and after a long period in the locker room, he returned to start the second half and looked great finishing with 23 points and three 3-pointers. He swears that he'll be able to play through the pain and it would be surprising to see the Clips run him back out there last night if he needed surgery, but however you slice it this is not good news for him and his owners. Hopefully it won't affect his shooting or keep him out, and he's a guy that you may want to float in trade offers if he plays well but his finger continues to hurt.
Time to take the Sammy D out of the fridge
As expected with DeMarcus Cousins' development, he is on No. 2-3 of the five major headaches he's bound to cause owners this season. Aside from the worst inbounds pass I've seen this side of Isiah Thomas-to-Larry Bird on Monday, he has been playing increasingly sloppy, shooting 28-of-86 from the field (32.5%) over his last six games with 22 turnovers (3.7 per game). Last night he hit just 2-of-11 shots from the field for five points, four rebounds, two assists, and four turnovers in 25 minutes, and left without speaking to reporters after the game. Maybe that's because Samuel Dalembert looked great with a season-high 15 points, 12 rebounds, and two blocks in 28 minutes, and Paul Westphal might have given him some bad news. It's not time to drop Cousins by any means, but we wouldn't be surprised to see Westphal send him back to the bench or rein him in a little bit. Meanwhile, Dalembert should be picked up and owners shouldn't hesitate to throw him in lineups, though he's nowhere near must-start status, obviously.
It smells like a diaper filled with Indian food in here
Based on the Twitter comments and emails we get from owners who took Stephen Curry in the first round, the metaphor is appropriate. It's also appropriate for the level of whining I hear from Curry these days, who doesn't believe that his defense is a problem and doesn't believe he should be leaving the court. It is a problem, and Warriors TV color man Jim Barnett, who knows the Warriors about as well as anybody has a pretty good theory. He believes Curry taxed himself playing 48 minutes a game at times for Nellie last season, followed by his stint with Team USA over the summer. The fatigue, he says, combined with the ankle injury, has caused him to develop bad habits on defense and caused him to foul more often. Defense and foul trouble are the only reasons he has left the court according to Keith Smart, so it all adds up to me.
All of that said, I find it somewhat surprising that a player that is providing high-end second round value in most formats is getting so much hate. He's survived a nasty ankle injury, his backcourt mate has gone ballistic, and he hasn't played well – yet he's still returning near first round value. If this is his low-water mark, sign me up. But if you feel this is more trend than it is trough, there will be more than enough speculators in the Curry market to get you a deal done. I think he has enough pedigree and sense to make the necessary adjustments and get back into owners' good graces.
Batum Vacuum
Doctor A has been hyperventilating at the prospect to add Nicolas Batum wherever he can find him, and a day after making him his poster boy in yesterday's Dose, Batum led the Blazers with a season-high 24 points on 9-of-16 shooting with six rebounds, three assists, two threes, two steals, and a block. The idea was that he looked like a good pickup before Marcus Camby went down, and looked even better afterwards, and after last night's effort he needs to be owned in all formats until he gives owners a reason not to believe.
What's eating Gilbert?
Stan Van Gundy, apparently. The fragile guard admitted that Stan Van has been in his head, sharing with reporters that after he experienced some early success, Van Gundy started to expect more out of him and basically started berating him 24/7. While it sounds like he might have been griping, he wasn't, he was merely stating facts. Jameer Nelson's job security with the Magic is what it is in part because he has survived Van Gundy's tough love, and Arenas has yet to earn that badge of honor. This explains Arenas' disappearing act, and he's going to start showing up on waiver wires soon after he had another disappointing two-point, 13-minute line last night. Meanwhile, Nelson gave his owners some relief with 16 points, six rebounds, seven assists, a steal, and two treys. While Nelson got back into owners' good graces with this performance, Arenas' owners need to weigh the cost-benefit of waiting for him to earn Van Gundy's respect. It's going to happen – they aren't paying him all that money to ride the bench. But it's going to happen on Stan's terms and nobody else's.
[SIZE=+1]Pickup Lines[/SIZE]
Ramon Sessions – I feel for Mo Williams. More than anybody else on the Cavs, his heart was broken the most when LeBron left. And that has carried over into this year, and his injuries may or may not be a manifestation of the depression he showed over the summer. He sounds like a guy that's on a walkabout, and Sessions should be owned in all formats for the chance he can continue with nights like the 19 points, five rebounds, eight assists, three steals, and a block he put up last night. We've been hearing some pretty wild add/drop questions lately, though, so do keep in mind that Mo could easily return.
Corey Maggette – He scored 21 points with five rebounds, four assists, and two steals on 7-of-18 shooting last night. The Bucks offense needs scoring and that's what he brings. Scott Skiles held off as long as he could, perhaps to keep the smell of Nellie's cigars off of his players' uniforms, but has decided to give Maggette an extended look. Picking him up for the chance that he can keep it up makes a ton of sense.
Ryan Anderson – It's been a good week for many of our recent recommendations, and Anderson fell into that category with 20 points, four boards, two assists, and four more 3-pointers on 8-of-15 shooting. Though he's stuck in a time-share, he's creeping into must-own territory with his combination of 3-point shooting, rebounds, and blocks, though he didn't have a block last night.
DeMar DeRozan – He scored 28 points last night with four steals, and is only owned in 80% of CBS leagues out there. He's averaging 19 points per game in January and though he doesn't hit threes, rebound much, or pass the ball, he does get you about a steal and block per game.
Keyon Dooling – Finally, he showed up with a season-high 23 points on 9-of-11 shooting with three assists and three 3-pointers, and gets a bit of good news with Brandon Jennings opting out of the dunk contest. Sure, the Bucks probably don't want their star PG dunking if he's not fully healthy, but the takeaway is that Jennings' Jan. 31 return date looks less rosy. Nevertheless, Dooling has not played well and his backup, Earl Boykins, who had 19 points with three rebounds, four assists, two steals, and two threes has actually been better. They're nowhere near must add, but give them a look.
Marcin Gortat – A career-high tying 16 points, 12 rebounds, and three blocks will get you noticed, especially when you're the guy that everybody thought would explode two weeks ago. Robin Lopez scored nine points, but lasted just 11 minutes while racking up four fouls, and was thoroughly outplayed by Gortat last night. Keep in mind Gortat did his damage against J.J. Hickson, Antawn Jamison, and Alonzo Gee, but it's time to pick him up – especially if you need a big man.
Marcus Thornton – If coach Monty Williams gets paid by the win, then he owes Thornton at least a trip to Sizzler. Thornton went to Sizzler on his own dime for the second time in the last two weeks last night, single-handedly winning another overtime game with his offense
and his defense. After hitting a key bucket to tie the game in overtime, he stole an inbounds pass and then collected the ball on the other end to put the Hornets up for good. Will Monty give him regular playing time after this stellar performance? Probably not, but if you want to roll the dice feel free, just keep in mind the odds of success are not in your favor.
Lou Williams – 19 points, seven rebounds, four assists, a steal, and a block work in all formats, and he has been averaging 18 points in 10 January games. As with Maggette in Milwaukee, the Sixers need his scoring punch.
Daniel Gibson – Like the kid from
Role Models, I love me some Daniel Gibson, who returned from his ankle injury after missing five games. He's going to have little to no competition for minutes, starter or not, and has already proven what he can do when healthy. I personally don't think he should have been dropped, and owners should grab him now that he's back and producing.
Greg Monroe – He had another typical night with 13 points and nine rebounds on a perfect 5-of-5 shooting. His arrow is pointing up and is well worth a pickup.
DeJuan Blair – He set a season-high in scoring for the second time in three nights with 22 points to go with 11 rebounds, a steal, and a block. The game before? Three points and four rebounds in 14 minutes. I'd be more willing to bet that he'll flop in his next one than build off of it.
[SIZE=+1]Wednesday's Injury Ward[/SIZE]
Darko Milicic – Darko! left Wednesday's game during the third quarter after tweaking his ankle. X-rays taken were negative but it quells the enthusiasm following his 22-point, eight-rebound, two-steal, and four-block night from Monday, but he still managed the same number of steals and blocks in 23 minutes last night, and also chipped in six points and three boards. None of his various injuries have been all that serious, and he should be held, but he's no longer a buy low candidate because of his durability issues.
Tyson Chandler – He played through the flu on Wednesday, which he has been suffering from for some time. He'll get over it, obviously.
Carlos Boozer (ankle) – He "still appears to be a couple of days away, at least," and Taj Gibson should be owned by
somebody in your league. We wouldn't cut a player with long-term value for him, though it does feel like we've been through this before with Boozer – because we have. Consider Boozer very questionable for tonight's game.
Brandon Jennings – As mentioned earlier, his absence in the dunk contest calls into question his self-proclaimed Jan. 31 return date. Plan accordingly.
Michael Beasley (ankle) – He played and finished with 21 points, three rebounds, four assists, a steal, and a block, though he didn't hit a three. He logged 31 minutes before getting ejected for arguing with the refs, and was limping down the tunnel as he left. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't try to get his money's worth knowing that his ankle could use the rest with the game no longer in question. Either way, he's shown enough productivity to be started until he gives us a reason not to, but he has hardly turned the corner on this ankle injury.
Roy Hibbert – He missed Wednesday's game with the flu. Jim O'Brien said before the game that "when you lose a guy like Roy you try not to change up your entire rotation." Really? REALLY?!? I don't want to condone violence, but I went all Dewey Cox on my fork set. And I only own the guy in one league.
Linas Kleiza – He missed last night's game with his knee injury, and he has worked his way out of most owners' lineups. He stopped being valuable the moment that Andrea Bargnani returned, and has no guarantee of future value.
Mo Williams – As alluded to, Mo is out after getting a cortisone shot for his hip and is out indefinitely until his mind and body heal.
John Salmons – Owners were the victims of the Milwaukee press corps forgetting about the other team in town, as he did not play due to hip soreness. Too bad we didn't know until after game-time. Consider him day-to-day, and hopefully we'll get an update before too long.
Francisco Garcia – He was held from Wednesday's game with his calf injury, and I'm just holding onto him in the one league I own him in. I should probably be more aggressive with that roster spot, since there are no guarantees with the SF position in Sacto, but he is the team's undisputed leader and was providing me a nice mixture of threes, steals, and blocks before he went out.
Andrew Bynum – He suffered a slightly hyper-extended right elbow, but doctors have already checked him out and he will be playing Friday in Denver. Unless something changes, don't worry about it.
Tracy McGrady – He's still playing on a sore leg and hit just 2-of-9 shots from the field to finish with five points, four boards, and seven assists. He's still worth owning and could get hot at any time.
[SIZE=+1]Thursday Night Lights[/SIZE]
Philly heads into Charlotte on local television and NBA League Pass, which I believe is still free this week so check it out. The early TNT game pits the Mavs against the Bulls, and the late TNT game gives us the Clippers at Portland. Carlos Boozer (ankle) is the only big name that is iffy, though Blake Griffin (groin) and Eric Gordon's (finger) owners will want to watch the news closely.
